It was 60 days in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
